January Residential Sales Statistics

The January Residential Sales Statistics from the Tucson Association of Realtors are here. A surprisingly high number of sales occurred in November, when buyers usually go into hibernation. By December, the number of sales were similar to the previous December. The November frenzy may have been driven by the 10% down payment assistance program, which is now out of money. What a deal that was.

Last month, the median sale price in Tucson was $184,000, which is 8.3% higher than January 2016, but 3% lower than the spike to $190,000 in June 2016. 

There were 1,093 home sales last month, a 13.6% increase from January 2016. Last month there were only 3,777 properties for sale in Tucson. This is 26% lower than the previous January. 

So, when supply (listings) is low and demand (sales) is high, the home sale prices should go up, right? For the time being, that is true. We are seeing many properties selling with multiple offers. However, with the November buyer frenzy being cut short in December, and the generous down payment assistance funds dried up, and mortgage interest rates increasing, I wonder if we might start to see the market level off. Not crash, but stabilize to a more normal annual price appreciation of 3%. 

Nothing can be predicted with certainty in these changing times. Too many moving parts.