Monday, June 11, 2012

They Paved Paradise, Put Up a Parking Lot

I was so disappointed when Magic Carpet Golf was sold to a car dealership, which planned to raze the amazing folk art sculptures and make a parking lot. I reported in my blog (9/18/2009) that the Tiki Head, known throughout the Universe as Papa Moai, made a perilous journey to The Hut. I just read that almost all the other sculptures were also rescued.

Tucson Oddity: Magic Carpet's quirky beings take up new lives across city : Welcome to StarNet - Tucson, Arizona

Friday, June 8, 2012

May Residential Sales Statistics

The Tucson Association of Realtors has released the Residential Sales Statistics for May. The average sale price was $173,987, which is 15% higher than in September 2011, when it seems to have bottomed out at $150,699.

The supply and demand ratio continues to favor sellers by far. Dividing the 3,544 listings (sellers = supply) by the 1,318 sales (buyers = demand), we have a 2.69 month supply of listings. Anything under a six month supply is a sellers' market.

Just for comparison, in June 2005, at the peak of the real estate buying bubble -- which, oddly enough, was two years before the price bubble burst and prices started to spiral -- we had 3,969 listings and 1,890 buyers, resulting in a 2.10 month inventory. Amazing, isn't it?

Also astonishing is that average days on market are now down to 67. In January 2011, it was 108.

I see this in my business every day. I have written about 10 offers in the past month, and every time, without exception, the house was sold before we submitted our offer, or we got into a bidding war.

This frenzy seems to have started with the National Association of Realtors' announcement that Tucson is the number one city in the country for real estate investment. See my posts on April 12 and 20 this year.

It's still not easy for a buyer to obtain financing, but it is easier than it was a year ago. Still, cash buyers are dominating the market in the lower price ranges. Of the 1,318 sales in May, 36% sold for cash, 32% of the buyers obtained conventional financing, and 29% of the sales involved VA or FHA loans.

The window of opportunity for investors is closing. The days of buying $50,000 house in a decent neighborhood, doing cosmetic repairs, and making a 50% return on investment are over. This is evident in the median sale price, which increased 10% from May 2011 when it was $127,000 to $140,000 last month. It's a relief to see all those battered houses becoming homes again.

Foreclosures were 29% of the sales, and short sales were 13% of the sales. Life is getting easier for buyers and sellers.

When I tell my buyers that the market seems to have bottomed out, a few have ruefully remarked, "Well, that's good for you, not me." Actually it is good for buyers too, who have equity instead of being underwater the month after they purchase their home. When prices stabilize, fewer sellers will be forced into a short sale or foreclosure when they need to sell due to job loss, job transfer, divorce, death, and so on. Fewer distressed sales will mean a healthy housing market. A healthy housing market can restore our economy.

An out-of-control housing market drove a blazing economy in the last decade. I don't want or expect anything that crazy again. Normal would be fine with me, and I think normal is where we are heading.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Successfully Negotiated a For-Sale-by-Owner Transaction

I represented these investors from California in their purchase of a rental in Tucson. I worked directly with the seller, without the benefit of a seller's agent to run interference.

They said, "Donna, thanks for your hard work and guidance in this process. You've been impressively professional with us and with the seller, efficient with the documents, and on the mark with your advice. I hope we have further chances to work together in the future."

Martin and Holly Bern

Monday, May 21, 2012

April Residential Sale Statistics

The Tucson Association of Realtors has published the Residential Sales Statistics for April, and once again, Everything's Coming Up Saguaro Blossoms for You and Me. Average sale price was $175,766, up 4.5% from March, and up 1% from last April. 1,276 units were sold,  a 10.7% increase from last April. Most amazing, number of listings is way, way down to 3,770, a 40% decline from April 2011. We have a three-month supply of listings. Anything below a six month supply is a sellers' market.

And indeed it is. Bidding wars are back. I just beat out five other offers on a property by offering $1,000 above any competing offer, and waiving the appraisal. It's like 2005 all over again.

However, I don't think we will see a return to the insane price increases of the mid-aughts. These days, buyers need be qualified for a mortgage. Investors, who used to buy a house under construction with the intention of doing no work and selling for a profit once the house was completed, no longer have that option. Today's investors are paying cash for uninhabitable houses, renovating them, and reselling to people who will live in them. It's great to see all those abandoned, trashed houses becoming homes again.

We have now seen the average sale price increase in six of the last seven months. Tucson real estate is looking really good. I get several calls a week from investors who want to get on the fix and flip gravy train, but with rising prices and increased activity among investors, it has become difficult to find a housing bargain. Most people who call me want to buy a $30,000 to $40,000 house in a decent area. I tell them they have a lot of competition.

Foreclosures were 30% of the sales, and short sales were 13% of the sales. It's a relief to see distressed sales comprising less than half of the sales. As prices rise, fewer homeowners will find themselves under water when they need to sell. I am doing more of what we used to call "normal" sales: no banks involved on the seller's side.

Buying a Condo in Tucson? Consider This.

Most of the condo listings in Tucson indicate that a buyer can purchase the condo using FHA financing. Most of the time, this is not true.

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the agency that insures FHA mortgages, established some rules last year that created huge liability for condo complexes that want to allow FHA financing. As a result, only three condo complexes currently qualify for FHA financing.

I explained the risks of obtaining HUD certification in my 7/23/11 blog post.

The eligible complexes, and the date their HUD certification expires are 1) Midtown Condominiums, 3646 E Blacklidge Dr., 9/28/2012, 2) Pinnacle Canyon Condominiums, 6/21/2013, and 3) Tierra Catalina Condominiums, 3201 E Skyline Dr., 4/7/2013.

Condos Eligible for FHA Financing in Tucson.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

The Truth About Investing in Tucson Real Estate

I have received several calls in the past few weeks, all from Californians, who have heard that the National Association of Realtors has declared Tucson to be the best place in the country for real estate investment. The whole country is abuzz with the news that investors are paying $40,000 for houses here and flipping them. This is true. The missing piece of this exciting news is that a $40,000 house is uninhabitable and/or not in a great part of town.

As of today, we have 231 listings priced under $50,000 in the Tucson Multiple Listing Service. Take out the coops, the condos, the townhouses, the mobile homes and the manufactured homes and we have 59 single family houses priced under $50,000.

In April, 69 single family houses priced under $50,000 were sold through the MLS. A few others were sold at trustee sale, but that is the subject for another blog entry. Of those 69 single family houses, 51 were foreclosures, and 8 were short sales. So only 10 sales were what we used to consider "normal sales": the seller was a person, not a bank, and that person had equity in his house.

In April, the 59 foreclosures and short sales were what we call "distressed sales". Distressed is supposed to describe the financial circumstances under which the house is being sold, but I would venture to say that in most cases the buyer was pretty distressed before the sale was completed.

The investors who are profiting from Tucson's low prices are already here in Tucson. They are able to act decisively when one of these bargains becomes available. They pay cash, and have the knowledge, contractors and money to get the house renovated and back on the market quickly.

The number of houses for sale is way down. The number of buyers is way up, back to 2007 levels, before the housing market imploded. Fixing and flipping houses is a very competitive business. NPR got it right yesterday in their segment on Arizona real estate.

I still think Tucson is a great place to own a home and rentals. Some investors are making a killing here, but they are fix and flip pros. For the rest of us, the best strategy may be to buy a house in good condition in a good neighborhood, rent it out or live in it for a a few years, and hope that the current upward trend in home appreciation continues.



Certified Check or Wired Funds

Experienced real estate agents are always evaluating the home inspectors, loan officers, escrow officers and other people we encounter who can help us with our business. We have assembled our teams of experienced, conscientious and reliable professionals, and we refer our clients to our team mates so the sales transaction goes as smoothly as possible.

The escrow company handles the paperwork and the money in a real estate sale. If this job isn't done correctly, the repercussions can take years to resolve. I know this from personal experience.

Unfortunately, when we are selling a foreclosure, we usually have to work with the escrow company that the seller chooses, and this company is often in Phoenix or California.

One of my fellow agents recently had an unpleasant experience with an out of town escrow company. The buyer signed settlement documents in Tucson, and provided a certified check for down payment and closing costs. The signed documents and check were Fed Exed to the out of town escrow officer. Upon arrival, the certified check was missing.

Issuing a replacement check can take up to 90 days. The buyer could lose the opportunity to buy the house, just as he was packing the moving truck. You can imagine the heartache.
 
The solution is to wire the funds to the escrow company. If a wire is misplaced, it can be tracked and resubmitted. 
 
Incidentally, I got this tip through my company's interoffice communications. Working with a large company where many agents share their learning experiences and advice helps me avoid making mistakes on my own transactions. I am so glad I moved to Tierra Antigua Realty.