April Residential Sale Statistics

The Tucson Association of Realtors has released the residential sales statistics for April. The housing market recovery continues, and may be showing signs of stabilization. Prices are up slightly, number of sales is steady, but inventory is declining. Economics 101: low supply may cause high prices. It sure seems that most of the bargains have been snapped up.

Loan Deliquencies Down to Pre-Bubble Levels

According to a study by Lender Processing Services, only 0.84% of all mortgages that were current six months ago are now 60 days late. This is only slightly higher than the levels seen prior to start the housing bubble in 2004.

People who say that homeowners are losing their homes because they never qualified for mortgages haven't thought the matter through. Mortgage loan qualifications have been very strict since the bubble burst in 2007. People who shouldn't have been given mortgages lost their homes by 2009. People are losing homes now either because they lost their jobs or they lost their equity in their homes when the market became dominated by foreclosures and short sales. They are not reckless or foolish. They are responsible people who did everything right and were victims of the housing bubble and recession.

Distressed Sales Loosen Their Death Grip on Tucson Market

In April 2013, the Tucson Association of Realtors recorded 138 short sales and 288 sales of foreclosed properties. Distressed sales accounted for 31.6% of the total 1,348 sales in April.

What an improvement over April 2012, when we had 185 short sales and 413 sales of foreclosed properties comprising 42.7% of the 1,399 sales.

And if that sounds horrible (which is was), let me remind you of the really dark and scary days of 2011 (no, not that!), when 112 short sales and 512 sales of foreclosed properties were 49% of the sales in April two years ago. While short sales were 9% of the sales two years ago, foreclosed properties were 40% of the sales. Now banks have finally started to figure out that foreclosing is bad for people, banks and the economy (plus our government has finally stepped in to stop the worst of the foreclosure abuses). Last month 10.2% of the all sales were short sales and foreclosed properties accounted for 21.4%.

Short sales frequently sell for a little under market value, and bank-owned properties that a lender has taken back from a borrower in foreclosure almost always sell for way under market value. These low sale prices drag down the value of neighboring properties. The fewer houses we have selling at fire sale prices, the better for the majority of sellers who are not underwater or delinquent in their mortgage payments.

Zillow Rental Scam Hits Tucson

I expect that most landlords have received poorly written emails from people who claim in bad English they want to rent a house sight-unseen, but for some absurd reason, the landlord needs to send the bogus tenant money.

One of my colleagues at Tierra Antigua has twice been the victim of a new, much more ingenious scam. The scammer copies a legitimate for-rent ad from Zillow, lowers the rent in his fake ad to the too-good-to-be-true level, and pretends to be the property manager. Unsuspecting renters send this fake landlord a security deposit. Then, of course, all communication from the fake landlord ceases. The renter is understandably angry that his security deposit has disappeared, and directs his anger at the actual property manager, whose identity has been stolen by the scammer.

When I put a listing in the Multiple Listing Service, it is automatically picked up by Zillow, Trulia, Yahoo.com, Realtor.com, and hundreds of other sites. This is usually a good thing. But if Zillow is unable to catch and prosecute the perps, the National Association of Realtors may have to reconsider the practice of allowing other websites to use our listing data.

In the comments following the Inman News article, many agents comment that the scam comes to an abrupt halt when the prospective tenant drives by the house and sees the real listing agent's sign in front of it, and calls the real listing agent. Unfortunately, not all prospective renters take this step and want to believe that an offer that's too-good-to-be-true might nevertheless be true.

One agent suggests that listing agents set up a Google search for the address of all properties that an agent lists in the MLS. Then if the listing is copied by a scammer on craigslist, Zillow, Trulia, etc., I will know about it. Reading all those emails (most of which will be legitimate repostings of my listing) will be a lot of work, but apparently this sort of diligence is required in the digital age.

Lost a Neighbor, Kept a Friend

I was disappointed when my neighbors Joe and Wayne told me they wanted to sell their house, but I'm glad I was able to help them. This is from Dr. Joseph Yukish, a trainer of teachers:

After waiting four years in the housing crisis for the house to sell, we decided to list again with Donna. She is the most amazing person and wonderful realtor. Her knowledge about the market helped us to create realistic expectations for the sale of our home, and it did, in fact, sell! Finally!!! Although Donna is not the one who found the buyer, she made the sale of our home possible by 1. Giving us suggestions about how to prepare it for the market. 2. Following up immediately with the realtor who brought a prospective buyer to look at our home. She would then give us feedback about what the buyer's impression of the home was, IMMEDIATELY! 3. Throughout the listing, she made us aware of the state of the housing market was in Tucson, allowing us to set realistic expectations for a selling price. 4. When we did get an acceptable offer, she orchestrated the proper submission of paperwork or duties we needed to complete to take the sale to closure. 5. The buyer wanted to make some renovations to our home, and Donna was excellent in setting up times for her contractor to come into the home allowing us to deal with taking care of Thumper and Lady Gray our pet cats. 6. And finally, she took us through the closing process in person, sitting by our side to answer questions and support us in the necessary procedures. I have bought and sold many homes in my life, and I place Donna Moulton at the "top of the heap" of realtors who worked with me. She is professional, competent, and very understanding of the angst and reactions homeowners have when selling their home. I was once told by a counselor that selling a home and moving is one of the top five stressors one must deal with in a lifetime. If you want to make selling your home possible, I can't promise it will be less stressful, but I can tell you this wonderful lady will be there to support and guide you through the ordeal. Hire her!!!!!!!

Lazuli Bunting

 If the Cactus Wren didn't already have the job, I would nominate the Lazuli Bunting for Arizona's state bird. Look how perfect he is: chrysocolla head and tail, and copper chest.

I am always impressed by how brave Mourning Doves are when they are on their nests. This one stays perfectly still whenever I go out on my back porch, and will not budge.

March Residential Sales Statistics

The Tucson Association of Realtors has published the Residential Sales Statistics for March 2013. Average sale price was $191,881, which is up 27% since the Tucson market hit bottom in September 2011. Average sale price is even up 5% in the past two months.

Dividing the 4,210 listings by the 1,329 sales gives a 3.2 month supply of listings. Anything below a six month inventory is a sellers' market.