Okay, this is what I was looking for yesterday. The National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo have been calculating a Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) since 1991. Their findings for the third quarter of 2009 are here.
With a median Tucson family income of $57,500 and a median sale price of $159,000, the median-priced house is affordable to 73.4% of the families in Tucson.
Tucson's HOI hit its low in the third quarter of 2006, when only 30.2% of the families in Tucson could afford the median-priced house.
Obviously, a home purchase is affordable to more Tucsonans now because the home prices are a lot lower than they were three years ago. We also need to consider that the HOI is a function of mortgage interest rates, so the unbelievably low interest rates (below 5%) are a significant contributor to housing affordability.
Tucson's HOI is 129th out of 227 metropolitan areas studied.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Tucson Undervalued?
A study by cnnMoney.com says that the median home price in Tucson is $148,200 (doesn't say how they came up with that) and that Tucson real estate is undervalued by 15%. It was overvalued by 27% in 2006, according to this study.
They arrive at these conclusions by comparing the median home price to population densities and historical premiums or discounts an area has experienced.
I'd like to see a comparision of what percentage of families earning the median income can afford the median-priced house. That seems like a more meaningful evaluation of value.
They arrive at these conclusions by comparing the median home price to population densities and historical premiums or discounts an area has experienced.
I'd like to see a comparision of what percentage of families earning the median income can afford the median-priced house. That seems like a more meaningful evaluation of value.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Harris Hawks
I have been hearing the piercing cry of hawks at our house near Campbell and Ft Lowell for weeks. One recent morning I was sitting in my home office. I looked out the window, and there was a family of three hawks in the mulberry.
It looked, as Steve would say, like a married couple and a teenager. The red shoulders and white rumps are characteristic of the Harris Hawks.
Uh oh. Busted.
It didn't take long for them to notice me in the window, 15 feet away. After glaring at me for a few more minutes, off they flew. 
Sunbeam has added the hawks to the bobcat, javelina and the coyotes as her top four reasons for preferring to observe the world from within our house.
FHA Changes are Coming
FHA will be taking measures to address their risk exposure and strengthen their finances by announcing policy changes that will affect future FHA loans. FHA reserves have fallen below the federally-mandated level, and FHA needs to raise capital quickly so they can continue to insure mortgages.
Effective April 1, the Up Front Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) will increase from 1.75% to 2.25% of the loan amount. The Up Front MIP is added to the loan amount, and is being restored to its previous level.
In early summer, all FHA borrowers must have a minimum credit score of 580 in order to qualify for minimum down payment of 3.5%. Borrowers with scores less than 580 will be required to make at least a 10% down payment. Can you believe that people with under 580 credit scores are currently buying houses? Some lenders have already established their own credit standards. For example, Fairway Mortgage will not lend money to people with credit scores under 620. Even that seems too risky to me. A score over 720 is considered excellent, and 800 is the maximum possible credit score.
Also in early summer, allowable sellers concessions will be reduced from the current 6% of sale price to 3%. Seller concessions are seller contributions to the buyer's closing costs and amounts pre-paid into escrow accounts.
You may think this doesn't pertain to you because you don't plan to get an FHA loan, but as credit tightens up, we will see fewer borrowers qualifying for loans. This could result in a reduction in demand for houses. What happens when we have high supply and low demand?
The last of the most recent changes affects investors who buy a house to fix and flip. Currently, the investor can't sell a house to an FHA buyer until 90 days after the investor purchased it. This is supposed to prevent buyers from paying too much for a house, but I think if the house has been fixed up, it is worth more, and the investor deserves to be rewarded for providing livable housing to the market.
Anyway, the 90 day rule will be waived by FHA effective February 1. Again, lenders can make up their own rules. I recently sold a house that an investor had fixed up, and the lender required three appraisals because less than six months had passed between the investor's purchase of the house and the buyer's offer. This wasted time and money for both the buyer and seller, but lenders are very afraid of making a bad loan, so they want everything squeaky clean.
Effective April 1, the Up Front Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) will increase from 1.75% to 2.25% of the loan amount. The Up Front MIP is added to the loan amount, and is being restored to its previous level.
In early summer, all FHA borrowers must have a minimum credit score of 580 in order to qualify for minimum down payment of 3.5%. Borrowers with scores less than 580 will be required to make at least a 10% down payment. Can you believe that people with under 580 credit scores are currently buying houses? Some lenders have already established their own credit standards. For example, Fairway Mortgage will not lend money to people with credit scores under 620. Even that seems too risky to me. A score over 720 is considered excellent, and 800 is the maximum possible credit score.
Also in early summer, allowable sellers concessions will be reduced from the current 6% of sale price to 3%. Seller concessions are seller contributions to the buyer's closing costs and amounts pre-paid into escrow accounts.
You may think this doesn't pertain to you because you don't plan to get an FHA loan, but as credit tightens up, we will see fewer borrowers qualifying for loans. This could result in a reduction in demand for houses. What happens when we have high supply and low demand?
The last of the most recent changes affects investors who buy a house to fix and flip. Currently, the investor can't sell a house to an FHA buyer until 90 days after the investor purchased it. This is supposed to prevent buyers from paying too much for a house, but I think if the house has been fixed up, it is worth more, and the investor deserves to be rewarded for providing livable housing to the market.
Anyway, the 90 day rule will be waived by FHA effective February 1. Again, lenders can make up their own rules. I recently sold a house that an investor had fixed up, and the lender required three appraisals because less than six months had passed between the investor's purchase of the house and the buyer's offer. This wasted time and money for both the buyer and seller, but lenders are very afraid of making a bad loan, so they want everything squeaky clean.
Friday, January 22, 2010
PHC at TCC!
Steve and I are going to see A Prairie Home Companion at Tucson Convention Center a week from Saturday. I just watched the DVD, "A Prairie Home Companion", last night. Meryl Streep can do no wrong. Woody Harrelson is fabulous in the movie, too. Reminds me of his role as the deranged soldier in "Wag the Dog".
I'll try to get Garrison to give a shout out to someone when we're at the show. Maybe you?
I'll try to get Garrison to give a shout out to someone when we're at the show. Maybe you?
Monday, January 11, 2010
1320 S Harmon Lane
This is no quick fix 'n' flip. These sellers are PERFECTIONISTS! This home is absolutely immaculate. Completely renovated to the most meticulous standards within the last 2 years. Ceramic tile through out. Oak kitchen cabinets.
New doors & double pane windows. Popcorn removed & walls retextured. Appliances less than 2 years new. The floor plan is here.
Ceiling fans. Great location only minutes to downtown, U of A, golf & hiking.
Many people are amazed, thrilled and grateful when they discover the Tucson Mountain lifestyle. Quieter, less expensive, newer and higher quality than Central Tucson, yet so convenient! This beautiful end unit is surrounded by cactus, mountains and serenity.
Here's the private park in the middle of the subdivision, near the south pool.
Here's the north pool and ramada.
HOA fee covers water plus roof and front yard maintenance. This house sold March 12, 2010 for $117,000.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
December Residential Sales Statistics
The Tucson Association of Realtors has released the Residential Sale Statistics for December.
With 886 units sold in December, we saw a 10.5% increase since the previous December, but a 12.4% decline from the previous month. I think this may be because the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit was due to expire on November 30, and buyers who didn't have a house in escrow in November (which would have closed in December) no longer had that incentive. At the very last minute, Congress extended the tax credit through April 30, and added a $6,500 tax credit for buyers who lived in a home they own for five of the last seven years. I expect we will see a resurgence in the first time buyer market in the first quarter of 2010.
Average sale price was $202,376, up 0.8% for the year and up 7.4% from November. Median sale price was $154,262, down 8.2% for the year and down 5.1% for the month.
Most of the action remains in the under $250,000 market. With 4,423 listings and 693 sales in December in this price range, we have a 6.4 month supply of these houses. This is almost down to the six month supply that is considered a balanced market.
In the $250,000 to $500,000 range, we had 1,618 listings and 141 sales, for an 11.5 month inventory.
The over $500,000 market will remain weak as long as buyers have difficulty getting loans in this price range. With 937 listings and 52 sales, we have an 18 month inventory.
Government-insured loans (FHA and VA) accounted for 50% of the financed sales. From 2004 to 2007, sellers would have laughed at the idea of considering an offer with FHA and VA financing, when conventional loans were available for no money down and no concerns about the condition of the house. In December, 43% of the financed sales used conventional financing, which requires at least 10% down payment now, excellent credit, and a house in very good condition. Amazingly, 236 of the 886 sales, or 27%, were cash sales. Cash can be the only way to buy some of the short sales and foreclosures that either were trashed by the previous owners or deteriorated while they sat vacant for months or years.
With 886 units sold in December, we saw a 10.5% increase since the previous December, but a 12.4% decline from the previous month. I think this may be because the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit was due to expire on November 30, and buyers who didn't have a house in escrow in November (which would have closed in December) no longer had that incentive. At the very last minute, Congress extended the tax credit through April 30, and added a $6,500 tax credit for buyers who lived in a home they own for five of the last seven years. I expect we will see a resurgence in the first time buyer market in the first quarter of 2010.
Average sale price was $202,376, up 0.8% for the year and up 7.4% from November. Median sale price was $154,262, down 8.2% for the year and down 5.1% for the month.
Most of the action remains in the under $250,000 market. With 4,423 listings and 693 sales in December in this price range, we have a 6.4 month supply of these houses. This is almost down to the six month supply that is considered a balanced market.
In the $250,000 to $500,000 range, we had 1,618 listings and 141 sales, for an 11.5 month inventory.
The over $500,000 market will remain weak as long as buyers have difficulty getting loans in this price range. With 937 listings and 52 sales, we have an 18 month inventory.
Government-insured loans (FHA and VA) accounted for 50% of the financed sales. From 2004 to 2007, sellers would have laughed at the idea of considering an offer with FHA and VA financing, when conventional loans were available for no money down and no concerns about the condition of the house. In December, 43% of the financed sales used conventional financing, which requires at least 10% down payment now, excellent credit, and a house in very good condition. Amazingly, 236 of the 886 sales, or 27%, were cash sales. Cash can be the only way to buy some of the short sales and foreclosures that either were trashed by the previous owners or deteriorated while they sat vacant for months or years.
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